How to Get There From Here: Ecological and Economic Dynamics of Ecosystem Service Provision

Using a bioeconomic model of a coral reef-mangrove-seagrass system, we 1 analyze the dynamic path of incentives to achieve an efficient transition to the steady state 2 levels of fish biomass and mangrove habitat conservation. Our model nests different types 3 of species habitat dependency and allows for changes in the extent of habitat to affect the 4 growth rate and the long-run fish level. We solve the two-control, two-state non-linear opti5 mal control problem numerically and compute the input efficiency frontier characterizing the 6 tradeoff between mangrove habitat and fish population. After identifying the optimal locus 7 on the frontier, we determine the optimal transition path to the frontier from a set of initial 8 conditions to illustrate the necessary investments. Finally, we demonstrate how dynamic con9 servation incentives (payments for ecosystem services) for a particular habitat with multiple 10 services are interdependent, change over time, and can be greater than contemporaneous 11 fishing profits when the ecosystem is degraded. 12